Bitcoin has slipped to its lowest level since October 2024, and the tone across the crypto market is quietly changing. What once looked like a sharp correction is now starting to resemble something deeper—and potentially longer.
Behind the price drop is a growing split between who is selling and who is buying. And history suggests that this particular mix doesn’t usually end quickly.
Big Money Is Leaving the Room
Fresh data from crypto analytics firm Santiment shows that Bitcoin’s largest holders—often referred to as whales and sharks—have been cutting exposure aggressively. Wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC now control their smallest share of total supply in nine months, a development Santiment says has repeatedly preceded extended bear markets.
In just the past eight days, those large wallets have unloaded more than 81,000 BTC, pushing their combined holdings down to 68.04% of the total Bitcoin supply.
Santiment didn’t mince words about what this usually means.
“This combination of key stakeholders selling and retail buying is what historically creates bear cycles,” the firm said.
Retail Keeps “Buying the Dip”
While large players are distributing, smaller investors are doing the opposite.
Santiment data shows that so-called “shrimp” wallets—those holding less than 0.01 BTC—now control a 20-month high of Bitcoin’s supply. Retail buyers appear to be stepping in with confidence, steadily accumulating even as prices slide.
It’s a familiar pattern: experienced capital reduces risk, while newer participants view falling prices as opportunity.
And that divergence is exactly what worries analysts.
“Every Cycle Is the Same”
Veteran crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen believes the current downturn could follow Bitcoin’s longest and most painful historical script yet. According to Cowen, even if Bitcoin stages a bounce in the coming months, it may be little more than a temporary relief rally.
“Bear markets suck. They don’t last forever though. Better times will come,” Cowen wrote. But he warned investors not to confuse short-term rebounds with a true bottom.
Looking at long-term technical trends, Cowen said Bitcoin typically grinds lower through major weekly moving averages during bear markets.
“When BTC drops below the 50-week moving average, it then goes to the 100-week moving average, spends a little time there, then goes to the 200-week moving average,” he explained.
Based on that historical rhythm, Cowen suggested the cycle may not fully bottom until October 2026.
From Distribution to Despair
According to Victor Olanrewaju, analyst at CCN, the conversation has shifted decisively.
“The bigger question now is duration, not direction,” he wrote. “Analysts are increasingly framing the market as moving from distribution into despair, a familiar late-cycle transition.”
Olanrewaju pointed out that Bitcoin bear markets have historically delivered 75% to 85% peak-to-trough drawdowns, far deeper than many investors expect during early selloffs.
The recent damage has been severe. Roughly $500 billion in crypto market value was wiped out in a single week, a pace that rarely leads to fast recoveries.
“That kind of destruction usually leads not to V-shaped recoveries,” Olanrewaju said, “but to long, grinding accumulation phases.”
Why the $69,000 Level Matters
Despite the gloom, analysts aren’t calling Bitcoin finished. But they are becoming more defensive.
Olanrewaju noted that Bitcoin’s price action has already reset expectations for the post-2021 era. Unless BTC can reclaim $69,000—a level closely tied to prior cycle highs—any rally is likely to be treated with skepticism.
“Until it reclaims $69,000, rallies are likely to be treated as counter-trend moves,” he wrote.
What This Means Going Forward
For now, Bitcoin is caught in a familiar but uncomfortable place: large holders are stepping away, retail is stepping in, and history suggests that patience—not excitement—may define the next phase.
Whether this cycle plays out exactly like the past remains to be seen. But the signals flashing today point less toward a quick rebound—and more toward a prolonged test of conviction.
And for investors, that may be the most important shift of all.