U.S. stock futures inched upward on Wednesday as traders braced for the release of the delayed January nonfarm payrolls report, a key economic gauge postponed due to the recent partial government shutdown.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both rose 0.1%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures advanced roughly 30 points, or 0.1%, signaling cautious optimism in early trading.
Eyes on the Jobs Report
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to publish January payroll data Wednesday morning. Economists expect minimal growth, with consensus forecasting roughly 55,000 jobs added, slightly higher than December’s gain of 50,000. The unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 4.4%.
Investors will also scrutinize revisions from prior months, which could shed light on the overall health of the U.S. labor market and broader economic trends.
“It’s been hard to get a read of exactly where the labor data is going to come out through the adjustments following the shutdown along with the basic uncertainty around the economy,” said Krishna Guha, head of economics and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI.
“There seems to be a weaker relationship right now between growth and employment…part of that is the uncertainty and part of that may also be some secular AI-related effects on the labor market.”
Weaker Consumer Data Adds Pressure
The jobs report comes on the heels of disappointing consumer data. December spending was flat, missing expectations for a 0.4% increase, highlighting sluggish demand and adding to cautious sentiment in the markets.
In regular trading on Tuesday:
S&P 500 slipped 0.3%, pressured by AI concerns in financial services
Nasdaq Composite fell 0.6%, dragged down by tech and AI-related volatility
Dow Jones eked out a 0.1% gain, marking another all-time closing high
The AI factor, in particular, has investors debating how new technologies may reshape jobs in financial services. Following the launch of an AI-powered tax planning tool by tech platform Altruist, several financial firms’ shares came under pressure, reflecting heightened market sensitivity to automation and labor disruption.
Looking Ahead
Beyond the payrolls data, investors will turn their attention to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due Friday, a key inflation gauge. Combined with jobs data, these readings are expected to influence Federal Reserve policy expectations and could shape market direction for the remainder of the quarter.
With futures nudging higher amid uncertainty, the market appears to be holding its breath—balancing cautious optimism against persistent economic and AI-driven headwinds.