🌅 Good morning, Future Millionaires!

Markets are closing out the week in a cautious mood as investors transition from the narrative-driven rally of the past year to a far more data-dependent environment. Artificial intelligence enthusiasm — the single biggest driver of 2025’s equity surge — is now facing its first true stress test, just as inflation signals, geopolitical developments, and shifting liquidity conditions complicate the macro backdrop.

Today’s session is less about panic and more about repricing expectations. Capital is rotating, not fleeing. The question investors are now asking is simple but profound: where does sustainable growth actually come from in a higher-for-longer world?

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Premarket Snapshot

👉 Futures are leaning risk-off, driven primarily by renewed pressure on AI-linked technology stocks.

1️⃣ AI Trade Losing Momentum
Weakness led by Nvidia has shaken confidence in the “infinite AI demand” narrative — even after strong earnings.

Markets are shifting from:

2️⃣ Inflation Data Is Freezing Positioning
Traders are waiting for fresh producer-level inflation signals that could influence the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut timeline into mid-2026.

3️⃣ Geopolitical Noise Adding Defensive Flows
Stalled U.S.–Iran progress has nudged investors toward safe havens.

4️⃣ Mixed Economic Signals (Not Recessionary)

📊 Result: Confusing macro, not collapsing macro.

Leadership is shifting:

This is a valuation reset — not a systemic selloff.

Upside

Downside

Base Case: Choppy, rotational session with early downside bias.
Hot Inflation Print: Tech sells further, volatility spikes.
Benign Data: Relief bounce led by cyclicals — not mega-cap tech.

🤖 Block Cuts Jobs to Go All-In on AI
Block, Inc., led by Jack Dorsey, is laying off ~4,000 employees as it pivots to AI-driven operations. Internal tools are expected to replace many roles after pandemic-era overexpansion and a stock slump.
Takeaway: Fintech’s next phase is about automation and efficiency—not headcount growth.

🖥️ Dell Bets Big on AI Infrastructure
Dell Technologies expects AI-server revenue to surge to ~$50B by 2027 as companies race to build data centers. The boom underscores how AI demand is enriching hardware providers as much as software players.
Takeaway: The AI gold rush is powering the “picks-and-shovels” layer of tech.

⚖️ U.S. Military vs. AI Guardrails
The United States Department of Defense is clashing with Anthropic over whether AI models can be used broadly in warfare or must include strict ethical limits.
Takeaway: This could define global rules for military AI deployment.

🪙 Gold Stays Near Highs
Gold is up ~20% this year, supported by geopolitical tensions and rate-cut expectations. Investors continue rotating into safe-haven assets amid uncertainty.
Takeaway: Risk and liquidity—not just inflation—are driving bullion demand.

🌎 Foreign Buyers Financing U.S. Debt
Allied nations bought a record amount of U.S. Treasuries in 2025, highlighting reliance on friendly governments as geopolitical rivals trim exposure.
Takeaway: Geopolitics is becoming a key factor in sovereign debt markets.

🎬 Netflix Walks Away From Mega-Deal
Netflix exited the bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery, leaving Paramount Global and partners to pursue the acquisition. Investors cheered Netflix’s restraint.
Takeaway: Markets now reward profitability discipline over scale chasing.

🪙 Bitcoin Miner’s All-In Strategy Backfires
American Bitcoin Corp. posted a $59M loss as BTC weakened, showing the risks of pure-play mining versus diversified rivals.
Takeaway: Mining stocks magnify crypto cycles—on the way up and down.

🌍 Liquidity Boom Helps Gold More Than Bitcoin
Research cited by Fidelity Investments shows global money supply at record highs, lifting gold while Bitcoin behaves more like a volatile tech asset.
Takeaway: BTC still trades on sentiment as much as macro liquidity.

📉 Analysts Say Bitcoin Slide Is Cyclical
Bitwise Asset Management attributes the downturn to normal cycle dynamics and capital rotating into AI, not market manipulation.
Takeaway: The crypto market is cooling in a familiar post-boom pattern.

🧠 Wikipedia Founder Remains Skeptical of BTC
Jimmy Wales called Bitcoin a failed currency experiment, even as institutional inflows continue via vehicles like BlackRock ETFs.
Takeaway: The long-term Bitcoin narrative remains deeply divided.

Market Snapshot

This is classic defensive positioning inside crypto — capital concentrating into Bitcoin while risk appetite remains weak.

1️⃣ ETF Flows Turning Positive
Institutional money is returning, creating structural demand rather than speculative leverage.

2️⃣ Relief Rally From Extreme Fear
Historically, deeply bearish sentiment often precedes short-term rebounds.

3️⃣ Short Squeeze Dynamics
Liquidations of bearish bets accelerated the bounce.

4️⃣ Macro Still Capping Upside
Crypto remains highly sensitive to interest-rate expectations and equity volatility.

According to analysts at Bitwise Asset Management, current weakness reflects:

Meanwhile, miners like MARA Holdings and Riot Platforms show how operational leverage magnifies Bitcoin moves.

📉 Translation: Crypto is transitioning from retail-driven cycles → institutionally driven liquidity cycles.

Gold: Holding near record highs (~$3,000/oz zone)
Silver: Tracking gold strength around $30+
WTI Crude: Mid-$70s, range-bound
U.S. 10-Year Yield: ~4%+, sticky but data-dependent
Dollar (DXY): Firm, trading on Fed expectations

“Higher-for-Longer vs. Eventual Cuts” Tug-of-War

Gold’s strength signals persistent hedging demand, while oil’s sideways move suggests slower — not recessionary — growth expectations.

Markets today are trading Fed timing, not recession risk.

Key Drivers:

📊 This creates a positioning environment where:

This is a positioning day, not a panic day.

Markets are:

The defining shift of early 2026 is underway: markets are moving from a story fueled by technological optimism to one grounded in cash flows, rates, and macro durability. AI is not disappearing as a theme — it is maturing into a capital-intensive cycle where infrastructure winners, balance-sheet strength, and real earnings matter far more than vision alone.

For investors and traders alike, this is a landscape that rewards selectivity over momentum and patience over narrative chasing. Expect volatility, expect rotation, and above all, expect markets to remain data-driven until clarity on inflation and policy finally emerges.

Thanks

Disclaimer

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, cryptocurrency, or security. I am not a registered financial advisor in any jurisdiction worldwide. Financial markets are volatile, and investments may result in partial or total loss. Readers in the U.S., Canada, and EU should consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and the publisher is not responsible for any losses or damages arising from reliance on this information.