The Middle East oil market has been hit with another geopolitical shock.

Crude prices moved higher Monday after Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi movement launched missile and drone attacks targeting Saudi Arabia's capital, Riyadh, adding another layer of risk to an energy system already under severe pressure.

Brent crude futures gained about 0.78% to $104.68 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose around 0.76% to $101.06 in early trading, according to Reuters.

The increase may look relatively modest compared with the much larger oil moves seen earlier in the month.

But the market reaction matters because the latest attacks come at a particularly sensitive point.

Saudi Arabia is already dealing with damage and disruption to important oil infrastructure.

The Strait of Hormuz remains heavily constrained.

Shipping routes across the region are under pressure.

And the conflict involving Iran, the Houthis and Saudi Arabia is creating uncertainty over the reliability of the world's most important oil-export routes.

For traders, the latest attack raises an uncomfortable possibility:

The energy market may not yet be finished pricing the risk.

Saudi Arabia is one of the world's most important oil producers.

That makes attacks on the kingdom fundamentally different from ordinary geopolitical headlines.

Even when oil facilities are not directly damaged, markets react because Saudi Arabia possesses a unique role in balancing global crude supply.

The latest Houthi attack targeted Riyadh with missiles and drones.

Saudi forces have reported intercepting attacks, while the broader conflict has also involved threats against important locations and infrastructure.

The concern is not simply physical damage.

It is the possibility that repeated attacks eventually hit a facility that is harder to replace or repair.

That risk creates what traders call a geopolitical premium.

Investors may pay more for crude simply because the probability of future supply disruption has increased.

The latest attack arrives after Saudi Arabia suffered damage to its East-West pipeline, an important alternative route for transporting crude across the kingdom toward the Red Sea.

The pipeline is strategically significant because it can reduce Saudi Arabia's dependence on shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.

When that alternative route is disrupted, the importance of maritime routes increases.

Saudi Arabia has already been using alternative arrangements, including crude transfers through Oman, to keep exports moving.

That has helped prevent the worst-case scenario from becoming reality.

But alternative routes are not frictionless.

They can increase transportation costs.

They can require additional vessels.

They can complicate scheduling.

And they remain exposed to the wider regional security environment.

The world's oil market is particularly sensitive to what happens around the Strait of Hormuz because it is one of the key gateways for energy exports from the Gulf.

Recent vessel-tracking data have shown commercial traffic through the strait at dramatically reduced levels.

Reuters reported that only a few commercial vessels were crossing at certain points, compared with much higher normal traffic.

That does not automatically mean global oil production is collapsing.

The problem is transportation.

Oil sitting inside a producing country does not help an overseas refinery unless it can be moved safely.

When shipping capacity becomes scarce, freight rates and insurance costs can rise sharply.

That increases the final delivered cost of crude.

The latest market structure is becoming increasingly unusual.

Saudi Arabia is attempting to reroute shipments.

Other producers are adjusting their flows.

But the number of tankers available for the most complicated routes is limited.

The Wall Street Journal reported that very large crude carrier rates had risen dramatically as ships were tied up navigating the disrupted region and alternative routes.

This can create an indirect supply squeeze.

Even if sufficient crude exists globally, not all barrels are equally easy to transport.

A shortage of tankers can therefore function like a shortage of oil.

European consumers are especially exposed because the region depends heavily on imported energy.

Refined products are already expensive.

Diesel markets have been under pressure.

European refineries need dependable crude supplies.

If Middle Eastern exports remain disrupted, European buyers may have to compete more aggressively for alternative cargoes.

That can raise prices even if the global production balance is not dramatically different.

The global fuel market is also dealing with disruptions to Russian refining capacity after attacks on infrastructure.

That matters because crude and refined products are not the same market.

A refinery can be offline even when crude supply is available.

That reduces gasoline and diesel production.

As a result, consumers can experience high fuel prices even if headline crude prices eventually stabilize.

This is one reason the current energy shock has become more complex than a simple “oil shortage.”

Crude above $100 has consequences far beyond energy traders.

Higher oil prices raise gasoline costs.

They increase shipping expenses.

They raise airline fuel costs.

They make transportation more expensive.

They can increase the price of plastics and petrochemical products.

And they can eventually influence the price of food through higher transportation and fertilizer costs.

That means another sustained oil rally could complicate central-bank efforts to control inflation.

The Federal Reserve has already raised interest rates and warned that price pressures remain elevated.

A renewed energy shock would make the inflation picture harder.

It is important to put Monday's move into perspective.

Brent at $104.68 is high.

But it is below the recent peaks above $107 and $109.

That suggests the market is not yet pricing a complete breakdown in Saudi exports.

Traders continue to assume that alternative routes, inventories and repairs can prevent the worst outcome.

That assumption could change quickly if a major facility suffers serious damage.

Oil prices can fall just as quickly when geopolitical expectations improve.

If negotiations involving the United States, Iran and regional powers begin producing meaningful progress, traders could reduce the premium attached to the region.

Shipping activity could recover.

Insurance costs could fall.

More tankers could return to normal routes.

That would increase the effective supply available to global buyers.

But for now, diplomatic progress remains uncertain.

The most dangerous scenario for oil markets may not be one massive attack.

It may be repeated smaller attacks that gradually make energy transportation more expensive and less reliable.

Each incident can add insurance costs.

Each disruption can force rerouting.

Each damaged facility can reduce flexibility.

Over time, those small costs accumulate.

That could keep oil prices elevated even without a dramatic collapse in production.

The kingdom's large production capacity and alternative export infrastructure provide significant resilience.

That is one reason the oil market has not spiraled even higher.

But resilience has limits.

If multiple routes are disrupted simultaneously, the flexibility disappears.

That is when inventories become critical.

Strategic reserves can help.

Commercial inventories can help.

Other producers can increase output.

But none of those solutions is instant.

Oil markets move faster than infrastructure can be repaired.

The next signals will come from several places.

Will Saudi Arabia report additional infrastructure damage?

Will the East-West pipeline return to service?

Will shipping through Hormuz increase?

Will tanker costs remain elevated?

Will other producers increase exports?

Will diplomatic talks resume?

And will global inventories continue providing a cushion?

The answers will determine whether Brent remains around $100 or begins another climb toward its recent highs.

The Monday oil move is important not because 0.78% is an extraordinary daily gain.

It isn't.

The significance lies in what caused it.

Another attack on Saudi Arabia has reminded markets that the physical infrastructure behind global energy remains vulnerable.

The world's oil system depends on pipelines, ports, tankers, refineries and shipping chokepoints.

Damage any one of them, and the system can adapt.

Damage several at once, and the economics change rapidly.

For now, Saudi Arabia is still finding ways to move crude.

Global inventories are providing some protection.

And oil remains below its recent peak.

But with the Houthis escalating attacks and commercial shipping still facing serious disruption, the market has little room to become complacent.

The latest message from crude traders is therefore straightforward:

The world still has oil.

The bigger question is whether it can move that oil safely.