Oil prices are heading toward a second consecutive weekly gain as the unresolved U.S.-Iran conflict continues to disrupt crude and refined-product supplies from the Middle East, keeping traders focused on the risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude was trading near $93.82 a barrel early Friday, while West Texas Intermediate was around $86.78. Brent had gained more than 7% over the previous five sessions, while WTI had risen more than 8%, with both benchmarks reaching their highest levels since late July.

The latest rally highlights a growing concern in energy markets: the problem is no longer simply whether the conflict will disrupt supply, but how long reduced flows will continue.

The Strait of Hormuz is at the center of the market's anxiety.

Before the war, roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption passed through the waterway.

Traffic has since collapsed.

Only seven commodity ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, according to shipping data cited by Reuters, a dramatic reduction from normal levels.

That does not automatically mean the world is running out of oil.

The bigger issue is that crude and refined products cannot move normally from major Middle Eastern producers to international buyers.

When transportation becomes uncertain, the market places a premium on every available barrel.

The disruption extends beyond Iranian exports.

Supply from major regional producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait remains curtailed as shipping activity through the Gulf remains depressed.

That broadens the impact considerably.

Even countries that are not directly involved in the conflict can experience reduced export capacity when ships cannot safely move through the region.

This is why the market has responded to the overall disruption rather than simply tracking Iran's own production.

The political situation is also becoming more difficult.

An earlier peace arrangement expired during the week, but neither side has made meaningful progress toward restarting negotiations.

President Donald Trump has threatened severe economic retaliation against countries supporting Iran, including what he described as economic warfare and unprecedented isolation.

The United Arab Emirates has also suspended financial and economic transactions with Iran.

Those developments suggest that the diplomatic path toward restoring normal shipping remains uncertain.

For oil traders, uncertainty itself is enough to maintain a risk premium.

The longer the disruption continues, the more significant the economic impact becomes.

A short interruption can be absorbed by inventories and alternative shipping routes.

A disruption lasting several weeks or months is different.

Refiners need steady access to crude.

Shipping companies need reliable routes.

Energy importers need predictable delivery schedules.

And countries with limited storage capacity cannot indefinitely rely on emergency inventories.

That is why traders are increasingly focused on the duration of the crisis.

Crude oil is only part of the story.

Diesel, jet fuel and other refined products can become tight even when crude inventories appear adequate.

Refinery operations are highly dependent on the availability and type of crude feedstock.

If regional crude flows are reduced, refiners may have to compete for replacement supplies.

That can increase transportation costs and raise prices for consumers.

The impact can then spread across the economy.

Trucking becomes more expensive.

Airlines face higher fuel bills.

Manufacturers pay more for transportation.

And consumers eventually see the effect through gasoline and other products.

The energy shock is especially important for central banks.

Higher oil prices feed directly into headline inflation and can also affect transportation and manufacturing costs.

If Brent remains around $90 or rises toward $100, central banks may have greater difficulty easing monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve is already balancing persistent inflation against signs of slowing growth.

A renewed energy shock makes that decision harder.

Markets that were expecting lower interest rates may have to reconsider.

The current price level does not yet represent the worst-case scenario.

Some analysts have warned that prolonged disruption could push Brent well above $100.

Economic Times reported that JPMorgan estimates each additional month of disruption could add approximately $7 to $8 per barrel to Brent, with a three-month disruption potentially taking the average monthly price toward $114. Goldman Sachs has also warned that Brent could reach $120 if shipping through Hormuz remains severely constrained.

Those are scenarios rather than forecasts that are guaranteed to occur.

But they illustrate how sensitive prices have become to the duration of the crisis.

The global market does have some buffers.

Producers outside the Gulf can increase output where spare capacity exists.

Strategic reserves can provide temporary support.

Pipeline routes and alternative ports can redirect some cargo.

But these options cannot fully replace the amount of energy normally moving through Hormuz.

That is why alternative supply acts as a cushion rather than a complete solution.

The sharp fall in vessel traffic is perhaps the clearest indicator of market stress.

Oil markets ultimately depend on physical movement.

Even if producers have crude available, it has limited economic value if shipping companies are unwilling to transport it.

War-risk insurance, security concerns and uncertainty over military operations can make the route too expensive or dangerous.

That can create a genuine physical bottleneck.

The consequences are significant for Asian economies that rely heavily on Middle Eastern energy.

China, India, Japan and South Korea all import large quantities of crude and refined products from the Gulf.

If prices continue rising, those countries could experience higher inflation and larger import bills.

China and India have greater ability to source crude from Russia, Africa and other regions, but replacing Gulf barrels completely would be difficult.

The longer Hormuz remains disrupted, the more likely companies are to rethink their energy logistics.

That could encourage additional investment in pipelines, storage, alternative shipping routes and strategic reserves.

It could also accelerate efforts to diversify energy supplies away from a single chokepoint.

In the long run, that may reduce vulnerability.

In the short run, however, it raises costs.

Energy traders are watching Washington and Tehran as closely as inventory reports.

A credible agreement that restores safe shipping could quickly remove part of the geopolitical premium.

An escalation could push prices sharply higher.

That makes oil unusually sensitive to headlines.

The market could move several dollars in either direction on the basis of a single diplomatic announcement.

For now, the evidence points toward continued pressure.

Brent is up more than 7% over the past five sessions and is on course for its second straight weekly rise. WTI is also heading toward a strong weekly gain.

The key question is no longer whether the conflict affects energy markets.

It clearly does.

The key question is how long those effects will last.

If shipping remains severely restricted, the geopolitical premium could continue expanding and push crude toward levels that create a broader inflation problem.

If the diplomatic stalemate breaks, some of those gains could quickly disappear.

Until then, oil markets remain on edge — with the Strait of Hormuz functioning as both a physical bottleneck and a daily reminder of how vulnerable global energy prices are to geopolitical disruption.