A long-awaited ruling could shake global trade, trigger billions in refunds, and send stocks swinging within minutes.
Washington is bracing for a decision that could ripple far beyond the courtroom and straight into global markets.
The Supreme Court of the United States is scheduled to convene Friday morning for the first time in weeks, with investors, corporations, and foreign governments watching closely for a potential ruling on the legality of tariffs imposed by Donald Trump.
At the center of the storm is the closely followed case Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, which could redefine how — and whether — a president can use emergency powers to reshape international trade.
Why This Case Matters So Much
For the past 14 months, Trump has leaned on a decades-old statute, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), to justify sweeping tariffs tied to what he has declared national economic emergencies.
The legal question is deceptively simple:
Can a president use emergency authority to impose tariffs — traditionally a power reserved for Congress?
Chief Justice John Roberts framed the constitutional tension starkly during arguments, noting that tariffs function as taxes on Americans — a domain historically controlled by lawmakers, not the executive branch.
Wall Street Is Already Gaming Out the Scenarios
Financial institutions are preparing for multiple outcomes — each with dramatically different market consequences.
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase outlined three primary possibilities:
Tariffs Upheld: A win for the White House that preserves the current trade regime.
Tariffs Struck Down: A ruling that dismantles the legal foundation of the measures.
Delayed Impact: A more surgical decision that postpones real consequences until after midterm elections.
Depending on which path the justices choose, researchers estimate the S&P 500 could swing anywhere from a 1% drop to a 2% rally in immediate reaction.
Policy analysts warn that the first move may not last long. Terry Haines of Pangaea Policy predicts a burst of headline-driven volatility followed by a rapid reassessment as investors digest the legal nuances.
The Refund Question: A $130 Billion Wild Card
Perhaps the most disruptive possibility isn’t whether tariffs stay — but whether companies get their money back.
If the Court rules the tariffs unlawful and orders retroactive refunds, businesses could scramble to unwind years of payments, creating what Justice Amy Coney Barrett warned during arguments might become “a mess.”
The stakes are enormous:
The U.S. government has collected over $260 billion in duties since early 2025.
Roughly 55% of that revenue is tied directly to the tariffs under legal challenge.
Analysts estimate disputed funds could total around $130 billion.
That scale raises the prospect of weeks — or months — of administrative and legal chaos.
Even a Defeat Might Not End the Tariff Era
Despite the drama surrounding the case, few observers believe the ruling will be the final chapter in America’s trade battles.
Trump has repeatedly signaled he would pivot to alternative legal authorities if necessary, saying recently that he would “figure something out” should the Court rule against him — though he admitted any replacement might not be “as beautiful” as the current system.
That suggests tariffs, in some form, could persist regardless of the legal outcome.
Timing Remains Uncertain — and That’s Adding to the Tension
Unlike Congress or the White House, the Supreme Court operates on its own calendar.
It does not announce in advance which rulings will be released on a given day, and decisions could slip to next week — even aligning with Trump’s upcoming State of the Union address.
Legal observers say the delay may reflect the complexity of crafting an opinion that balances executive authority, congressional power, and the economic consequences of undoing years of policy.
Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson recently offered a measured explanation: major rulings simply “take a while to write” as the Court works to be thorough and precise.
What Investors Should Expect Next
Regardless of the headline outcome, analysts agree on one point:
Markets will react instantly — and possibly overreact.
A decision could reshape:
Global supply chains
Corporate pricing strategies
Federal revenue projections
The limits of presidential economic power
Yet many strategists believe the long-term trajectory of U.S. trade policy will depend more on political negotiations and future legislation than on this single ruling.
The Bigger Picture
This case is about more than tariffs. It is a constitutional test of how far emergency powers can stretch in a world where economic policy increasingly intersects with national security and geopolitics.
Whether the Court reins in those powers or allows them to stand, the decision will likely influence how future presidents — of either party — wield economic authority during crises.
And with billions of dollars, global alliances, and market confidence hanging in the balance, Friday’s session may mark one of the most consequential trade-law moments in a generation.