U.S. stock futures were largely flat early Friday, reflecting a cautious mood as investors stepped back from big bets ahead of two potentially market-moving events: the December nonfarm payrolls report and a long-anticipated Supreme Court ruling on President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
With both outcomes expected to inject volatility into financial markets, traders appeared content to wait for clarity rather than chase momentum.
Supreme Court Decision Looms Over Markets
The U.S. Supreme Court is widely expected to issue a ruling on the legality of Trump’s sweeping tariff program, a decision that could ripple across equities, bonds, and currencies. During arguments last November, several justices openly questioned whether the president had the authority to impose the tariffs as structured.
A ruling that strikes them down could have mixed implications. While tariffs have generated revenue for the government, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this week that his bigger concern would be the loss of political leverage rather than lost income.
Analysts at Rabobank said a decision against the tariffs could spark an initial rally in equities, as markets price in reduced trade friction and uncertainty. However, they cautioned that any relief may be short-lived.
“Trump has already indicated that his team has alternative proposals ready to replace the current tariff schemes if needed,” the bank noted, suggesting policy uncertainty may linger regardless of the ruling.
Jobs Report Adds Another Layer of Uncertainty
Adding to the tension is Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, due before the opening bell. The data is drawing extra attention because it is among the first reliable labor-market readings following last year’s historic U.S. government shutdown.
Economists surveyed by Reuters expect payrolls to rise by 60,000 jobs in December, while the unemployment rate is forecast to edge down to 4.5% from 4.6%.
Markets are currently pricing in around 60 basis points of interest rate cuts in 2026, according to LSEG data. Still, Federal Reserve officials have recently warned against further easing until there is clearer evidence that the labor market is cooling more sharply.
Rabobank analysts expect the report to confirm gradual softening in employment conditions but doubt it will be weak enough to force the Fed’s hand in the near term.
Futures Steady, Weekly Gains Intact
By 5:36 a.m. ET, futures pointed to a muted open. Dow E-minis were up just 9 points, S&P 500 E-minis gained 0.08%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis rose 0.16%.
Wall Street ended Thursday’s session mixed. Tech stocks dragged on the Nasdaq, while gains in consumer discretionary names helped lift the Dow and kept the S&P 500 flat.
Despite the choppy finish, all three major indexes are on track to post gains for the first full trading week of 2026. Strength in consumer discretionary and mining stocks has been a key driver, with the Dow poised for its strongest weekly advance since late November.
Movers to Watch
Defense stocks, which rallied Thursday on talk of a larger U.S. military budget in 2027, steadied in premarket trading. Lockheed Martin rose 1.2%, while RTX gained 0.8%.
Intel shares climbed 2.4% after President Trump said he had a “great meeting” with the chipmaker’s CEO, Lip-Bu Tan, adding to optimism around the company’s outlook.
For now, markets remain in wait-and-see mode. With jobs data and a high-stakes court ruling on deck, traders appear braced for a shift in sentiment—one way or another—before the day is done.