Is Bitcoin’s Pain Almost Over? Analysts Clash on a $30K–$50K Endgame

Bitcoin is bruised, shaken, and testing investors’ nerves—but the real question now gripping the market is simple: where does the bleeding stop?

After sliding 22.5% over the past month, Bitcoin (BTC) briefly sank to its lowest level in more than a year last week before staging a modest rebound. Prices dipped to $60,000 on February 6 and have since clawed back to around $70,354, up 1.2% on the day. Still, few are convinced the danger has passed.

Instead, the pullback has reignited an intense debate across crypto: Is Bitcoin already near its bottom—or is a deeper drop still ahead?

According to 10x Research, the broader downtrend remains firmly intact, even as sentiment indicators flirt with extreme levels. Beneath the surface, investor behavior paints a cautious picture.

ETF outflows continue. Stablecoin conversions are rising. And traders appear more focused on cutting risk than chasing bargains.

“Positioning dynamics suggest traders remain focused on deleveraging and position unwinds rather than on preparing for a typical snapback rally,” 10x Research noted.

In other words, fear hasn’t peaked—but conviction hasn’t returned either.

As uncertainty lingers, analysts are increasingly zooming in on price zones below $40,000.

Technical analyst Ardi points to historical Fibonacci retracement levels tied to past bear market bottoms. During the 2022 downturn, Bitcoin bottomed near the 78.6% retracement, a level that now sits around $39,176.

That alone doesn’t guarantee a move lower—but it keeps the door wide open.

Looking at the bigger picture, analyst Nehal examined Bitcoin’s historical drawdowns and noticed a striking trend: each bear market has been less brutal than the last.

The pattern? Roughly 7% less pain per cycle.

If Bitcoin topped near $126,000 this cycle, a 70% drawdown would imply a potential bottom around $38,000—remarkably close to Ardi’s Fibonacci level.

On-chain analyst Ted Pillows highlighted another key metric: the long-term holder realized price, which tracks the average cost basis of long-term investors.

Historically, Bitcoin bottoms when price drops about 15% below this level.

With the realized price currently near $40,300, that model points to a potential low around $34,500.

“I don't personally think we could go this low,” Pillows added—but the data suggests it’s not impossible.

Taking the bearish case even further, another analyst believes Bitcoin could fully bottom near $30,000 by the end of 2026, before launching into its next multi-year bull run.

Not everyone is buying the doom.

A growing group of analysts argues that Bitcoin may already be near—or past—its cycle low. A pseudonymous commentator pointed out that Bitcoin has a habit of bottoming where the crowd least expects it, often just below previous all-time highs.

“Most people think Bitcoin still has ‘one more big crash’ left… And that belief alone is exactly why it probably won’t happen,” the analyst wrote.

Their argument hinges on a structural shift in the market: spot Bitcoin ETFs, institutional capital, and mature infrastructure.

“Would institutions that just launched ETFs, onboarded billions, and educated shareholders allow Bitcoin to revisit levels that invalidate their thesis? Unlikely,” the analyst argued.

Volatility? Yes. Scary pullbacks? Absolutely.
But structurally, they say, sub-$50K Bitcoin would require something to break—not just sentiment to sour.

Adding nuance to the debate, analyst Darkfost revealed that Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio—a risk-adjusted return metric—has entered a zone historically associated with late-stage bear markets.

“This type of dynamic is precisely what tends to appear near market turning zones,” he said.

But there’s a catch.

This doesn’t mean the bottom is in. Instead, it signals a phase where risk-to-reward becomes extreme—a period that can stretch for months and still include further downside before a true reversal emerges.

Between $30,000 and $50,000, analysts see a battlefield forming—one shaped by history, on-chain data, and a radically changed market structure.

Whether Bitcoin has one final flush left or surprises everyone by holding higher levels, one thing is clear:
the next move won’t just define this bear market—it will shape the next bull run.