If I Only Had $1, I Still Wouldn’t Buy Bitcoin”: Arthur Hayes Warns of a Market Shock Before a Potential $750,000 Surge

Arthur Hayes has built a reputation in the crypto world for bold predictions that spark heated debate. But his latest statement may be his most surprising yet.

The outspoken co-founder of BitMEX and current CIO of Maelstrom Fund says that if he had just $1 to invest today, he still wouldn’t buy Bitcoin.

Instead, Hayes is doing something unexpected for a well-known Bitcoin bull: waiting on the sidelines.

Despite being one of crypto’s loudest long-term advocates, Hayes revealed that his current portfolio holds zero Bitcoin exposure.

For now, he has positioned himself defensively with a 50% cash and 50% gold allocation, watching the global macro environment closely.

His reasoning centers on one core belief: Bitcoin’s biggest rallies are driven by liquidity — specifically money printing by central banks.

According to Hayes, that moment hasn’t arrived yet.

Hayes describes Bitcoin as essentially a “credit derivative of fiat money creation.” When governments pump liquidity into the system, risk assets like crypto tend to explode upward. When liquidity tightens or uncertainty rises, those same assets often struggle.

Right now, in his view, the market is still waiting for the next liquidity switch to flip.

Hayes believes the real turning point will occur when central banks — especially the Federal Reserve — resume aggressive monetary easing.

That means:

When that happens, Hayes says he plans to jump back into Bitcoin aggressively.

Until then, he prefers to preserve capital and hedge risk.

Hayes also pointed to two powerful forces that could trigger significant market turbulence before the next crypto boom.

One of his biggest concerns is escalating conflict involving Iran and the United States.

A prolonged confrontation could disrupt:

If oil prices spike sharply, the ripple effects could destabilize financial markets worldwide.

Ironically, Hayes believes war can ultimately be bullish for Bitcoin because military spending often leads to massive government deficits and more money printing.

But before that liquidity arrives, markets could suffer painful sell-offs.

The second risk Hayes highlighted may be even more disruptive: artificial intelligence replacing high-income knowledge workers.

He estimates that 10% to 20% of well-paid U.S. professionals could lose their jobs within three to six months as AI systems become more capable.

These workers often carry large amounts of debt, including:

If layoffs hit that segment of the workforce, it could trigger a credit shock across the financial system.

Such an event could force markets into a deflationary phase, pushing risk assets — including crypto — sharply lower.

If those macro risks materialize, Hayes believes Bitcoin could experience a temporary drop below $60,000.

Historically, he says Bitcoin tends to react early and violently during financial stress, falling alongside stocks before rebounding once policymakers step in with emergency liquidity.

That pattern could repeat again.

Despite his near-term caution, Hayes remains extremely bullish about Bitcoin’s long-term future.

In fact, his projections are among the most aggressive in the industry.

He believes that once global liquidity expands again, Bitcoin could surge to:

His argument is simple: mounting global debt, geopolitical spending, and economic slowdowns will eventually force governments to print enormous amounts of money.

Assets that thrive during monetary expansion — like Bitcoin — could skyrocket.

Hayes’ forecasting history is mixed.

A review of around 20 recent market predictions found:

Even Hayes admits his timing hasn’t always been perfect. In a previous essay, he joked that his predictions had about a “25% batting average.”

Still, some of his broader macro ideas have eventually played out.

For example, he predicted in 2024 that Bitcoin would break $100,000, a milestone the market later reached as institutional demand surged after the halving cycle.

Not every call has worked out, though. In late 2025, Hayes predicted Bitcoin could hit $200,000 by March 2026, but instead the market corrected sharply and now trades near $70,000.

Hayes’ current strategy reflects a familiar theme in his market outlook:

Short-term caution, long-term conviction.

War risks, technological disruption, and economic stress may cause volatility in the months ahead. But those same forces could push governments toward massive fiscal spending and monetary expansion.

And when that happens, Hayes believes the next Bitcoin supercycle could begin almost overnight.

For now, though, the message from one of crypto’s most outspoken bulls is surprisingly simple:

Stay liquid. Watch the macro environment. And wait for the money printers to start again. 🚀