Goldman Sachs Sees 11% Stock Gains in 2026—But Bitcoin Is Breaking the Script

Global equity markets are expected to keep climbing in 2026, but investors shouldn’t expect a repeat of last year’s explosive rally. According to Goldman Sachs, stocks worldwide could deliver total returns of about 11% next year, including dividends—driven largely by earnings growth rather than rising valuations.

The outlook is built on a relatively stable macro backdrop. Goldman Sachs expects the global economy to expand by 2.8% in 2026, while the U.S. Federal Reserve may begin easing policy at the margins, providing additional support for risk assets.

Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman Sachs Research’s chief global equity strategist, says a major market sell-off is unlikely unless the economy slips into recession. Instead, he sees a market powered by steady profit growth rather than speculative excess.

Goldman’s analysts project equity prices—weighted by regional market size—to rise around 9% in 2026. When dividends are included, total returns could reach 11% in U.S. dollar terms.

Crucially, most of that upside is expected to come from stronger corporate earnings, not expanding price-to-earnings multiples. That distinction matters, because valuations across major markets are already elevated.

The bank also cautioned that returns in 2026 will likely be more moderate than in 2025, a year that delivered a powerful but uneven rally. Early 2025 was particularly volatile, with the S&P 500 plunging nearly 20% between February and April before staging a dramatic recovery.

Goldman Sachs laid out specific targets for major equity markets in 2026:

These projections reflect a market still in the “optimism phase” of the cycle that began after the COVID-driven bear market in 2020. In late-stage optimism, valuations tend to run high, and prices can sometimes overshoot expectations before momentum fades.

While stocks are projected to rise, Bitcoin’s behavior is drawing fresh attention. Historically, Bitcoin has often traded like a high-beta “risk-on” asset, moving in step with equity markets—especially the S&P 500.

But early 2026 is telling a different story.

According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 has slipped slightly into negative territory, currently sitting at -0.02. That suggests Bitcoin is no longer moving in tandem with stocks, at least for now.

Last year, crypto largely tracked equity markets, with brief periods of divergence in September, November, and twice in December. Analysts say those moments weren’t random—they may signal a broader shift in how Bitcoin responds to macro conditions.

A negative or near-zero correlation doesn’t mean Bitcoin has fully decoupled from stocks. History shows these relationships can change quickly. If equities surge higher, Bitcoin and the wider crypto market could easily snap back into alignment and ride the same wave of momentum.

For now, though, Bitcoin’s price action appears less predictable—and potentially less tied to traditional risk assets—than in recent years. That uncertainty is keeping investors glued to both crypto news and macro signals as 2026 unfolds.

Goldman Sachs’ outlook paints a picture of steady global growth, healthy corporate profits, and positive—but calmer—equity returns in 2026. At the same time, Bitcoin’s shifting correlation with stocks hints that crypto may be entering a new phase of market behavior.

Whether Bitcoin re-syncs with equities or continues to chart its own course could shape portfolio strategies in the year ahead. One thing is clear: both stock and crypto investors are entering 2026 with optimism—but also with sharper eyes on risk.