Futures Edge Higher as Wall Street Braces for Nvidia’s AI Litmus Test Amid Tariff Tensions

U.S. stock futures ticked modestly higher early Wednesday, offering a fragile calm after a week of whiplash moves driven by doubts over the artificial-intelligence boom and fresh uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs.

But the real test for markets lies ahead.

Investors are now fixated on earnings from Nvidia, due after the closing bell—a report widely seen as a referendum on whether Big Tech’s staggering AI spending spree is translating into sustainable profits.

At 4:49 a.m. ET, futures signaled a cautious rebound:

The uptick follows volatile sessions that defined a turbulent February, as investors reassessed whether the billions pouring into AI infrastructure are generating measurable earnings power—or simply inflating expectations.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq had climbed more than 1% on Tuesday as sentiment around AI shares temporarily improved, but conviction remains fragile.

For months, hyperscalers have touted enormous capital expenditures on AI systems. Collectively, technology giants are projected to spend roughly $630 billion in 2026 expanding AI data center capacity.

Yet some sectors are already feeling tremors of disruption.

Commercial real estate, trucking, and logistics stocks have posted sharp declines amid fears that AI-driven efficiencies could upend traditional business models.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs captured the market’s dilemma:

In other words, Wall Street believes in AI’s promise—but is still waiting for the proof.

Overlaying the AI debate is renewed trade friction.

President Donald Trump defended his economic record during Tuesday’s State of the Union address and said “almost all” countries want to stick to tariff and investment agreements with the U.S.

A temporary 10% global tariff took effect Tuesday following a recent Supreme Court ruling, though Trump later suggested the levy could rise to 15%. The timing and scope of that increase remain unclear, adding to investor unease.

Trade uncertainty has amplified February’s volatility, complicating an already delicate environment for equities.

All eyes now turn to Nvidia.

The chipmaker’s results are expected to show profits climbing sharply, fueled by relentless demand for its AI processors. Shares were up 0.5% in premarket trading Wednesday.

Investors want confirmation that earnings growth is keeping pace with the massive infrastructure spending by cloud giants. If Nvidia delivers robust guidance, it could steady nerves about the sustainability of the AI buildout. If not, broader tech stocks may face renewed pressure.

Beyond Nvidia, individual stock reactions underscore how selective the market has become:

Retailers TJX Companies and Lowe's Companies are among companies reporting before the bell, while software heavyweights Salesforce, Intuit, and Snowflake will report later this week.

The S&P 500 software and services index has slumped nearly 23% this year, reflecting mounting concern that AI innovation may benefit infrastructure providers faster than enterprise software firms.

At least three Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak Wednesday. Two policymakers signaled Tuesday that there is little appetite to adjust interest rates in the near term.

With inflation and growth signals mixed, investors are watching for any hint that monetary policy could shift—another variable in an already complex market equation.

Wednesday’s modest futures gains suggest investors are attempting to steady the ship. But beneath the surface, tension remains high.

Markets are juggling three powerful forces:

By the end of the day, Nvidia’s results could tip that balance.

For now, Wall Street is holding its breath—hoping that the company at the center of the AI revolution can provide clarity in a market craving conviction.