Energy markets are entering another period of heightened risk as uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz pushes oil prices higher and threatens to prolong a supply disruption affecting one of the world's most important energy corridors.

Brent crude climbed to about $91.79 a barrel on August 19, its highest level since July 30, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate reached roughly $85.79, the highest since July 31. Oil has now risen for four consecutive sessions as traders reassess the chances of a lasting resolution to the conflict involving the United States and Iran.

The market is sending a warning that the energy shock may be becoming more persistent rather than simply another short-term price spike.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important chokepoints in the global energy system.

Before the current conflict, roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies passed through the waterway.

Commercial shipping remains severely disrupted as vessel operators hesitate to send ships through the strait while governments disagree over whether the route is safe and what conditions would allow normal traffic to resume.

That uncertainty has become increasingly important for oil prices.

Traders can tolerate temporary disruptions when they believe supplies will quickly return to normal.

A prolonged interruption is different.

It forces buyers to compete for alternative supplies and increases the value of inventories held elsewhere.

The recent price increase reflects more than physical barrels removed from the market.

Investors are also pricing in uncertainty.

KCM chief market analyst Tim Waterer said the lack of confidence in safe passage has kept a geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices.

That premium could rise further if shipping remains depressed or the conflict intensifies.

Brent's move above $91 has already prompted warnings that oil could return to triple-digit prices if the disruption persists.

That would have significant consequences for inflation, transportation and consumer spending.

Governments and oil companies are seeking alternatives.

Iraq's cabinet has approved a system allowing crude exports through multiple routes and international companies beginning September 1.

Such measures can provide additional flexibility, but they cannot completely replace the enormous volume normally moving through Hormuz.

The same problem exists across the wider Gulf region.

Alternative pipelines, storage facilities and export terminals can redirect some oil, but physical infrastructure has limits.

If too much supply needs to be rerouted simultaneously, transportation costs can rise and other infrastructure can become congested.

The market is not facing an immediate global shortage in which consumers suddenly run out of crude.

Inventories and alternative supplies provide a buffer.

U.S. crude and distillate inventories reportedly declined in the latest week, while gasoline stocks increased, according to American Petroleum Institute data cited by Reuters. Official Energy Information Administration data was due later on August 19.

Those inventory figures will matter because they show how quickly the physical market is absorbing the disruption.

If inventories continue falling, traders could become increasingly concerned about future supply availability.

If stocks remain comfortable, some of the geopolitical premium could eventually fade.

The effect on consumers is not determined by crude prices alone.

Refining capacity also matters.

Even when enough crude exists globally, disruptions to transportation and refining can push gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel prices sharply higher.

That can produce a squeeze on consumers and businesses without requiring an outright global crude shortage.

Higher refined-fuel prices are particularly important because they feed directly into transportation costs.

Trucking, airlines, shipping companies and manufacturers can all face higher operating expenses.

Some of those costs are eventually passed on to consumers.

The energy-market problem is therefore closely connected to monetary policy.

Oil around $90 a barrel is not automatically inflationary enough to force central banks to change policy.

But a sustained increase can complicate efforts to lower inflation.

That concern is already visible in global bond markets.

The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield recently reached about 5.34%, its highest level in nearly 20 years, while long-term yields in Japan and Europe have also moved sharply higher amid concerns about inflation and government borrowing.

Higher oil prices can reinforce those concerns by raising inflation expectations.

That can make central banks more cautious about cutting rates.

The combination of expensive energy and higher borrowing costs is potentially damaging to global growth.

Businesses face two forms of pressure at once.

Energy costs rise, increasing operating expenses, while higher interest rates increase the cost of financing.

Consumers can also feel the squeeze through higher gasoline bills, transportation costs and borrowing expenses.

If those pressures become persistent, economic growth could slow.

That creates a difficult environment for central banks because fighting inflation with higher interest rates can weaken an economy already being pressured by expensive energy.

The latest price action suggests traders are becoming less confident that the Hormuz disruption will resolve quickly.

The temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran expired Monday, while Washington and Tehran have issued conflicting statements about the condition of the waterway and the prospects for talks.

Most shipowners are continuing to avoid the route.

That is a crucial signal.

Even if governments say the waterway is technically open, the market will not treat it as normal until shipping companies feel safe enough to return.

There is still a path to lower prices.

A credible diplomatic agreement could quickly reduce the geopolitical premium and encourage shipping companies to resume normal operations.

In that scenario, oil could retreat sharply because some of today's price is driven by fear rather than physical scarcity.

The opposite scenario is considerably more troubling.

A prolonged disruption could further reduce Gulf exports, push inventories lower and increase pressure on alternative supply routes.

That could send Brent toward and potentially above $100.

For now, the market remains caught between those two possibilities.

Oil above $91 is not yet evidence of a permanent energy crisis.

But it is a clear signal that traders are taking the supply threat seriously.

The longer Hormuz remains disrupted, the harder it becomes to view the problem as temporary.

Global energy markets are therefore entering a period in which geopolitical developments can have immediate effects on inflation, bond yields, transportation costs and economic growth.

The red lights are flashing because several risks are appearing at the same time: restricted shipping, elevated oil prices, declining confidence in a quick diplomatic resolution and rising global borrowing costs.

Until normal traffic returns through Hormuz, energy traders are likely to keep demanding a risk premium — and that means the world's consumers and central banks may have to prepare for a longer period of elevated energy-market pressure.