As oil prices surge amid the escalating war involving Iran, the world’s largest economies are scrambling for ways to calm energy markets. One option being discussed: releasing millions of barrels of oil from emergency stockpiles.
But energy experts warn that even a massive coordinated release might barely dent the crisis if the conflict continues to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical oil corridors on the planet.
The reality, analysts say, is simple and sobering: the world consumes so much oil every day that emergency reserves can only provide temporary relief.
Oil Prices Soar as War Disrupts Supply
The conflict has already sent shockwaves through global energy markets.
The international oil benchmark Brent crude climbed nearly 7% Monday to $98.96 per barrel, marking its highest closing price since 2022. The surge reflects fears that oil shipments from the Middle East could be severely disrupted.
Investors are particularly worried about the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to global markets. Under normal conditions, about 20% of the world’s oil supply flows through this passage.
With tanker traffic now heavily restricted due to the conflict, the energy market is bracing for the possibility of prolonged shortages.
Governments Consider Tapping Emergency Stockpiles
In response to the price spike, leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) — which includes the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom — signaled that emergency oil releases could be on the table.
Following a meeting on Monday, the group issued a statement saying it “stands ready to take necessary measures,” including tapping strategic stockpiles to support global energy supply.
However, the G7 stopped short of committing to any immediate release.
The cautious approach reflects the reality that even large stockpile withdrawals may have limited impact on the market.
A Drop in the Bucket
According to energy analysts, the scale of global oil consumption dwarfs the size of most emergency releases.
The world currently uses about 100 million barrels of oil every day.
Daniel Raimi, an energy policy expert at the think tank Resources for the Future, says that even coordinated releases involving tens of millions of barrels will only slightly influence prices.
“It’s not zero, but the effect is likely to be pretty small,” Raimi said.
“When you consider the volume of global oil trade, even a coordinated strategic petroleum reserve release will have only a modest impact.”
Lessons From the Ukraine Crisis
The world has faced a similar situation before.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, oil prices soared and governments responded with one of the largest emergency oil releases in history.
The G7 coordinated the release of 240 million barrels, including 180 million barrels from the United States’ Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
The move did help stabilize gasoline prices — but only slightly.
A U.S. Treasury Department analysis found the release reduced gasoline prices by 17 to 42 cents per gallon.
Tom Kloza, a veteran oil analyst and advisor to Shell Oil, said the intervention mainly prevented prices from rising even higher.
“If not for the SPR releases, we likely would have had gas above $5 a gallon for a number of weeks rather than just a few days,” Kloza said.
The Strait of Hormuz Is the Real Key
Despite discussions about emergency reserves, many analysts believe the only true solution is reopening the Strait of Hormuz to normal tanker traffic.
Without that vital shipping route, global oil markets could remain under severe pressure.
Bob McNally, founder of Rapidan Energy Group, warned that stockpile releases may only buy time.
“Unless the Strait of Hormuz traffic resumes soon and continues, SPR releases will just cause a brief pause before crude oil prices resume marching higher,” he said.
Strategic Reserves Are Not Infinite
Another concern for policymakers is that emergency stockpiles are a finite resource.
Before the Ukraine war, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve held about 600 million barrels of oil.
Today, that number has fallen to roughly 415 million barrels, after large withdrawals in recent years.
Energy experts caution that using the reserve too quickly could leave governments with fewer tools to respond if the crisis deepens.
“The thing about emergency stockpiles is you can only use them once,” said Neil Atkinson, a visiting fellow at the National Center for Energy Analytics.
“Without replenishment, when they’re gone, they’re gone.”
A Market Waiting for the Next Move
For now, global oil markets remain highly sensitive to every development in the conflict.
If tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumes soon, prices could fall rapidly.
But if the war drags on and shipping remains blocked, analysts warn that even massive reserve releases may not prevent another surge in oil prices.
In a market where the world burns 100 million barrels of oil every day, the battle over a single narrow waterway has suddenly become one of the most important economic flashpoints on the planet.