📊 Bitcoin Struggles to Hold $66K as Institutional Alarm Bells Ring — Analysts Warn $50K Could Be Next

Bitcoin’s latest price action is beginning to look less like a pause—and more like a market losing conviction.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency is hovering near $66,000, down roughly 1.2% in the last 24 hours, with short-lived rebounds failing to repair what analysts describe as a weakening broader structure. Beneath the surface, institutional signals, on-chain data, and long-term holder behavior are aligning to suggest the downside may not be finished.

A fresh warning from Standard Chartered has added weight to bearish sentiment. The bank reiterated that Bitcoin could slide toward $50,000 before any meaningful recovery takes hold, citing weakening ETF demand and fading institutional participation.

That caution is increasingly reflected in market data. Indicators tracking large-capital movement show that the steady inflows that once supported rallies are no longer present. Without sustained buying from major investors, price recoveries tend to stall quickly.

Technically, Bitcoin has broken below a classic bear flag formation—a pattern that often signals continuation of a prior decline after a brief consolidation phase.

This suggests recent upward moves may simply be relief rallies inside a larger downtrend.

At the same time, Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a metric used to gauge institutional accumulation or distribution, has fallen sharply. Analysts note the indicator now looks weaker than it did during the January–April 2025 correction, when Bitcoin dropped about 31%.

This time, the decline has already reached nearly 38% from its peak, and institutional demand still hasn’t returned.

Blockchain analytics reinforce the cautious outlook.

Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL)—a measure of how much profit investors are still holding—has dropped significantly. During the April 2024 recovery, NUPL sat around 0.42, indicating strong unrealized gains that helped fuel a rebound.

Now, it has fallen to roughly 0.11–0.17, meaning most of the bull-cycle profits have already been erased.

But historically, true market bottoms tend to occur only after NUPL falls much further. In March 2023, the metric plunged close to 0.02, signaling deep capitulation before the next rally began.

Compared to that period, today’s levels suggest the market may still have room to reset.

(Data tracked by Glassnode.)

Another unusual dynamic is unfolding among long-term holders—wallets that have held Bitcoin for more than a year and traditionally accumulate during downturns.

Instead of buying the dip, they have been net sellers:

This heavier distribution contrasts with previous corrections, when long-term investors began accumulating before prices recovered. Their absence removes a key stabilizing force from the market.

With technical and fundamental signals aligned to the downside, attention is shifting to a major support band between $53,200 and $48,300.

This range:

That overlap is why the $50K target cited by Standard Chartered is gaining traction—it matches the chart structure rather than representing a speculative guess.

In a more severe risk-off scenario, analysts say downside could even extend toward $42,400, an area tied to longer-term support levels.

For the bearish narrative to weaken, Bitcoin would need to:

So far, none of those conditions have appeared.

Bitcoin’s current phase reflects a shift from exuberance to caution. Institutions are hesitating, profits have thinned, and long-term holders are not stepping in to defend price.

Until one of those pillars returns, analysts say rallies may remain fragile—and the market could continue gravitating toward lower support zones in search of a true reset.