Bitcoin’s fragile truce with the $80,000 level didn’t survive the weekend.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency slid sharply after markets absorbed confirmation that Kevin Warsh will become the next Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, a development that immediately jolted risk sentiment and unleashed a wave of deleveraging across crypto markets.
According to analysts at QCP Asia, the move sparked a classic risk-off cascade—one that didn’t stop at digital assets.
📉 From Policy Shock to Forced Selling
Bitcoin broke below $80,000, triggering technical stop-losses and margin calls that sent prices briefly tumbling to around $74,500. Ether followed suit, slipping below $2,170, as leverage rapidly unwound across derivatives markets.
The damage was swift:
More than $2.5 billion in leveraged long positions liquidated
Persistent outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs added to downside pressure
Higher futures margin requirements accelerated forced deleveraging
By Monday, Bitcoin had stabilized near $74,500—but analysts warn the calm may be fragile.
🏦 Warsh Appointment Sends Shockwaves Beyond Crypto
The sell-off wasn’t isolated.
Risk aversion rippled across global markets as traders reassessed the likely policy trajectory under a Warsh-led Fed. Equities softened, while traditional safe havens like gold and silver pulled back from recent highs, signaling a broader repricing of monetary expectations.
Markets are now assigning a higher probability to earlier policy normalization or tighter financial conditions, a narrative that tends to weigh heavily on non-yielding assets—including crypto.
⚙️ A Different Kind of Panic This Time
Despite the sharp drop, QCP notes that options markets tell a more nuanced story.
Positioning remains skewed toward downside protection, but hedging demand is notably less aggressive than during previous stress episodes. During November’s plunge from $107,000 to $80,500, put buying surged far more violently than it has around the mid-$70,000 range.
That suggests a significant portion of excess leverage may already have been flushed out.
Still, momentum indicators remain pointed lower, and upside appears capped near recent resistance—leaving Bitcoin exposed if key support fails.
🔍 $74K: Floor or Trapdoor?
For now, Bitcoin is hovering above a technically important zone. The $74,500 area aligns with cycle lows seen in 2025, making it a critical battleground.
QCP outlines two clear paths from here:
Below $74,000: Risk of a deeper retracement toward levels last seen in 2024
Reclaim $80,000: Volatility could ease and sentiment may stabilize
“In the current environment, attention will focus on whether institutional accumulation re-emerges,” QCP said, pointing to Strategy’s average cost basis near $76,000 as a potential support signal. Analysts also flagged geopolitical risks—particularly around Iran—and upcoming Fed communication as key variables.
Any remarks from Chair-designate Warsh that soften expectations of tightening could offer temporary relief.
🧠 Capitulation or Cycle Low?
Not everyone sees the drop as a warning sign.
Analyst PlanC argues Bitcoin’s dip toward $77,000 has the hallmarks of a capitulation-style low, not the beginning of a prolonged bear phase. He compares the move to past shakeouts that preceded major recoveries, including:
The 2018 bear market bottom
The March 2020 COVID crash
Post-collapse sell-offs following FTX and Terra-Luna
According to PlanC, the likely cycle bottom sits between $75,000 and $80,000, framing the weekend plunge as a final cleanse within an ongoing bull market.
📊 Where the Market Stands Now
Bitcoin has rebounded modestly toward $78,600, but the damage is clear:
Down more than 11% on the month
Nearly 38% below its October peak near $126,100
Whether this was a violent reset—or just the opening act of a deeper correction—now hinges on macro signals, institutional behavior, and the tone set by the incoming Fed leadership.
For traders and investors alike, one thing is certain:
the $75K–$80K zone has become Bitcoin’s most important battleground of the cycle.
