Bitcoin is falling so fast you almost need to refresh the chart before talking about it.
On Thursday, the world’s most famous cryptocurrency slipped below $64,000 for the first time since October 2024, extending a brutal slide that has now erased more than 45% of its value from last year’s peak. Every gain investors booked during Donald Trump’s second term has vanished. Clean. Gone.
And as Bitcoin sinks, it’s dragging its most high-profile corporate believer down with it.
Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin Machine Hits Reality
No company is more synonymous with all-in Bitcoin conviction than Strategy (MSTR), Michael Saylor’s crypto treasury firm that turned balance sheets into leverage engines for buying more BTC.
On Thursday, Strategy shares collapsed 17%, then slipped another 2% after hours following the release of its fourth-quarter earnings. The numbers were stark:
713,502 bitcoins held
Average purchase price: $76,052
Bitcoin’s current price: roughly 20% lower
Operating loss: a staggering $17.4 billion, compared to $1.0 billion a year earlier
For years, the premise sounded almost magical: issue shares, issue debt, buy Bitcoin—repeat. As prices rose, it worked. Spectacularly.
From January 2024 to July 2024, Strategy stock surged nearly 700% in just 18 months, becoming a kind of financial perpetual-motion machine. Investors didn’t just buy exposure to Bitcoin—they paid a premium for it. At one point, the company was worth more than the Bitcoin it owned.
The math was wild. The profits were wilder.
Until they weren’t.
“HODL,” Says Saylor—While Others Panic
Despite the carnage, don’t expect a capitulation post from Michael Saylor.
He’s still very online, urging believers to stay strong, repeating crypto’s oldest battle cry: “HODL.” If words aren’t enough, he’s even shared AI-generated, crypto-optimistic images of himself—digital armor for a digital war.
But while Saylor posts through the pain, plenty of others are panicking.
And the deeper question isn’t just why Bitcoin is falling—whether it’s broader tech pessimism, fears of a more hawkish Federal Reserve, or Treasury Secretary Bessent hinting the government won’t rush in with a bailout.
The real question is why this collapse feels different.
Crypto Had Everything Going for It—And Still Failed
By the script crypto evangelists have been selling for years, Bitcoin should be thriving right now.
Inflation anxiety? Check.
Dollar skepticism? Check.
Geopolitical instability? Check.
A crypto-friendly White House and allies across the administrative state? Also check.
This was supposed to be the moment Bitcoin proved itself as a next-generation safe haven.
Instead, gold is winning—and winning decisively. Capital that once chased crypto’s promise is flowing into precious metals and, increasingly, into the AI trade, which has sucked up attention, money, and momentum like a vacuum. AI isn’t just outperforming crypto—it’s flattening much of the broader software sector along the way.
In this stress test, Bitcoin isn’t acting like digital gold. It’s acting like a high-beta tech asset with fewer believers.
A Reckoning for Latecomers
Saylor’s strategy worked beautifully when prices were rising. Even during downturns, he had enough cushion to wait it out. But this week’s drawdown is exposing every long-standing crypto critique at once:
It isn’t behaving like an inflation hedge
It isn’t protecting against instability
The numbers are moving in the wrong direction
And for late arrivals, the Lamborghinis and moon landings never showed up
Still, this isn’t an “I told you so” moment—at least not yet. Saylor hasn’t blinked. A 50% drawdown likely isn’t anywhere near his exit ramp. He may not even have one.
Why This Crypto Winter Feels Defining
This isn’t different because Bitcoin is dead.
It’s different because Bitcoin is here to stay—and struggling anyway.
The dream that political alignment, institutional adoption, and macro chaos would lift all crypto boats is cracking. What’s left is a market reckoning with what Bitcoin actually does in the real world, not what it promised to do in pitch decks and podcasts.
For the first time in a long time, optimism isn’t loud enough to drown out doubt.
And that may be the most consequential signal of all.