Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Bearish Signals Build as $98K Becomes the Line That Matters

Bitcoin’s recent price action tells a familiar but uncomfortable story: momentum is fading. Each attempt to push higher has been met with resistance, reinforcing a short-term corrective outlook rather than the start of a fresh rally.

For Bitcoin to flip this script, two things are usually required—investor patience and supportive macro conditions. Right now, BTC seems to have only one of those on its side.

On-chain data reveals growing stress among newer Bitcoin investors. The Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH-NUPL) has remained in negative territory since November 2025, meaning recent buyers are still sitting on unrealized losses.

Historically, Bitcoin only transitions into sustained uptrends once price reclaims and holds above the short-term holder cost basis. In this cycle, that level sits around $98,000.

Until BTC clears that zone:

This creates a self-reinforcing ceiling. As price recovers, newer holders tend to sell near breakeven, applying distribution pressure that caps upside and delays trend reversals.

While short-term sentiment looks shaky, longer-term signals tell a more reassuring story.

Bitcoin’s Hot Capital Share—a measure of short-term speculative activity—has cooled from 37.6% to 35.5%, drifting toward its lower statistical band. This suggests a market shifting away from fast money and back toward older, more patient capital.

Long-term holders continue to accumulate, a behavior that has historically:

In simple terms, long-term conviction is acting as a shock absorber—even as short-term demand weakens.

On the charts, Bitcoin is forming a slanted double top, a pattern often associated with bearish continuation. While this doesn’t guarantee an immediate drop, it does raise the stakes.

For now, BTC is holding above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $90,914. If buyers defend this level, Bitcoin could stabilize and attempt a recovery toward $94,000, which would weaken the double top structure.

But the margin for error is thin.

Downside risks remain elevated, especially amid growing geopolitical uncertainty. According to Nic Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau, a decisive break below $90,000 could trigger further selling—particularly if ETF holders begin exiting positions when US markets open.

Key levels to watch:

A confirmed move into this lower range would invalidate the bullish thesis and signal a deeper corrective phase.

Bitcoin isn’t collapsing—but it’s not convincing either. Short-term holders remain underwater, upside attempts face heavy resistance, and macro uncertainty continues to weigh on sentiment.

Long-term holders are providing a floor, not a launchpad.

Until BTC reclaims $98,000 and holds it, rallies are likely to be met with selling pressure. For now, Bitcoin remains at a crossroads—balanced between patient conviction and growing bearish resolve.