Bitcoin is once again at the center of a heated debate, with bold price targets pulling the market in opposite directions. On one side, influential bulls argue that growing institutional demand could ignite a historic rally. On the other, prominent skeptics warn that Bitcoin’s best days may already be priced in.
As BTC trades above $95,000, the question facing investors is simple but profound: is Bitcoin preparing for a parabolic breakout—or setting up for a brutal reversal?
The $315,000 Bull Case
Crypto investor and commentator Mike Alfred has reignited bullish enthusiasm with a striking prediction. According to Alfred, Bitcoin is “quietly building” toward a decisive test of the $94,000 level. If that barrier is broken with strong trading volume, he believes a massive rally could follow.
His target is eye-catching: $315,000.
Alfred doubled down on the claim, repeating that a high-volume breakout above $94,000 would be the catalyst. Shortly after his comments, Bitcoin climbed another 2%, pushing above $95,000 and adding fuel to the bullish narrative.
Known for his aggressive forecasts, Alfred has long argued that market sentiment often turns excessively pessimistic near key inflection points. He recently suggested Bitcoin has been deeply oversold, pointing to improving liquidity conditions and rising demand from emerging technologies as reasons for renewed optimism.
Like several other industry voices, Alfred has even floated the possibility of Bitcoin eventually reaching seven-figure valuations.
ETFs and the Case for a Parabolic Move
Supporting the bullish outlook is Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise. Hougan believes that sustained demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs could fundamentally reshape Bitcoin’s price dynamics.
Drawing a comparison to gold, Hougan noted that although central banks began aggressively buying gold in 2022, prices did not turn parabolic until years later. He sees a similar pattern forming in Bitcoin.
Since Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, funds have reportedly been absorbing more than 100% of newly mined Bitcoin supply. So far, the price has remained relatively contained because long-term holders have been willing to sell into that demand.
However, Hougan argues that this selling pressure won’t last forever. If ETF inflows persist, existing sellers may eventually run out—setting the stage for a sharp supply shock and a potential parabolic price move.
Hougan has also challenged Bitcoin’s traditional four-year market cycle, which has historically governed bull and bear phases. In his view, the halving’s influence is fading as new supply becomes increasingly negligible compared to institutional demand.
From a fundamentals perspective, he believes Bitcoin is in one of those rare moments where underlying demand may be ahead of price.
The Bearish Warning: A Return to $10,000?
Despite the optimism, not everyone is convinced. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone has issued one of the starkest warnings, suggesting Bitcoin could eventually fall back toward $10,000.
McGlone argues that many of the catalysts investors once anticipated—such as ETF approvals, political recognition, and mainstream adoption—have already materialized. With fewer major surprises left, he believes the market may be showing signs of exhaustion.
He has also questioned Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative, pointing to the explosive growth of the broader crypto ecosystem. From a single cryptocurrency in 2009, the market has expanded to millions of tokens today, potentially diluting Bitcoin’s perceived uniqueness.
In McGlone’s view, investors should be prepared for the possibility that Bitcoin retraces much of its long-term gains.
A Market Divided
Bitcoin now finds itself pulled between two extreme narratives: a future defined by institutional-driven scarcity and explosive upside—or one marked by saturation, fading catalysts, and a deep correction.
With ETF demand growing and sentiment sharply divided, the next major move may hinge on whether Bitcoin can decisively hold and build above key resistance levels. For now, BTC remains at a crossroads, with the coming months likely to determine whether the bulls or bears ultimately take control.