Bitcoin’s latest slide below $63,000 is no ordinary dip.
Behind the nearly 30% monthly decline lies a convergence of structural pressures — collapsing miner revenues, sustained institutional outflows, and a fragile technical setup that could determine the market’s next major move.
What once looked like routine volatility is now shaping into a stress test for the entire Bitcoin cycle.
📉 A Market Weakening From the Inside Out
On shorter timeframes, Bitcoin’s chart has begun to show classic signs of exhaustion. Analysts point to a developing head-and-shoulders pattern — a formation often associated with trend reversals — with critical support clustered near $60,000.
Data tracked by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that miners have been net sellers of Bitcoin for 46 consecutive days from January 9 through February 23 — the longest uninterrupted capitulation phase in over a year.
Miner capitulation occurs when operators are forced to liquidate holdings to cover costs, signaling financial strain rather than profit-taking.
⛏️ The Real Problem: Mining Has Become Less Profitable
The root cause of this selling wave is simple: miners are earning far less than they were a year ago.
Blockchain data aggregated via Dune shows monthly transaction-fee revenue dropping dramatically — from 194 BTC in May 2025 to just 65 BTC by February 2026, a nearly two-thirds collapse.
With shrinking income and falling prices, miners are increasingly compelled to sell reserves, injecting additional supply into an already cautious market.
This dynamic creates a feedback loop:
Lower fees reduce miner profitability
Miners sell more BTC to stay afloat
Increased supply pressures price further
🏦 Institutional Demand Is Also Cracking
At the same time retail narratives remain optimistic, institutional behavior tells a different story.
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have now recorded six straight weeks of outflows, the longest withdrawal streak since spot ETFs were introduced. That shift signals that large investors are trimming exposure rather than accumulating during the decline.
Market flow data monitored by SoSoValue suggests institutional capital — once the backbone of Bitcoin’s 2024–2025 rally — is no longer providing a safety net.
🌍 Macro Uncertainty Is Amplifying the Pressure
According to Gracy Chen, CEO of crypto exchange Bitget, macroeconomic headlines are now steering Bitcoin more than crypto-native developments.
She noted that tariff tensions and broader risk-off sentiment have made Bitcoin “highly sensitive to headlines,” warning that continued selling pressure could drag the asset toward $50,000 if key levels fail.
📊 The $60,000 Zone: Where Technicals and Psychology Collide
The importance of the $60,000 region is not arbitrary. It represents a rare alignment of multiple market indicators:
The neckline of the bearish head-and-shoulders structure observed on TradingView charts
A major Fibonacci retracement level near $60,100
The price zone where miners last reached peak capitulation in early February
Such convergence makes this area both technically significant and psychologically charged.
If Bitcoin holds above it, stabilization — and possibly recovery — becomes plausible.
If it breaks, analysts expect a move toward $54,800–$55,000, a level closely aligned with Bitcoin’s realized price, or the average cost basis of all coins in circulation. Historically, markets often gravitate toward that metric during deep corrections.
🔄 Supply Rising, Demand Falling — A Rare Double Shock
What makes the current setup unusual is that two major forces are weakening simultaneously:
Pressure Source | Current Trend | Market Impact |
|---|---|---|
Miner Behavior | Sustained selling | Adds supply |
ETF Flows | Persistent outflows | Removes demand |
Network Revenue | Sharply declining | Forces liquidation |
Macro Sentiment | Risk-off environment | Dampens inflows |
Bitcoin typically faces one of these headwinds at a time. Facing all of them together raises the stakes considerably.
🧭 A Decisive Moment for This Cycle
For bullish momentum to return, Bitcoin must reclaim resistance levels near $63,300 and $65,400, signaling renewed demand.
Until then, the market remains caught between forced selling from within the network and cautious capital flows from outside it.
The result is a narrow battlefield:
$60,000 now stands as the dividing line between consolidation and a deeper correction.
In past cycles, Bitcoin’s biggest tests came from external shocks.
This time, the strain is emerging internally — from the very mechanics that secure and sustain the network.
And markets are watching closely to see whether this pressure becomes a reset… or the start of something more profound.