The crypto market stepped into the third week of February with a burst of green across several altcoins—but beneath the surface, sentiment remains fragile.
Analysts warn that the current recovery may be less a confirmation of strength and more a setup for volatility-driven liquidations, particularly for traders chasing upside momentum too aggressively.

While prices attempt to stabilize, data shows leveraged positions are building in ways that could trigger sharp swings in XRP, Dogecoin, and Bittensor (TAO)—three tokens now sitting at critical inflection points.

XRP: Asia-Driven Selling Pressure Raises Liquidation Risks

XRP’s liquidation structure reveals a delicate imbalance: Long positions now slightly outweigh Shorts, leaving bullish traders exposed if momentum fades.

  • A drop to $1.30 could trigger over $200 million in Long liquidations.

  • A rally above $1.63 may instead liquidate $150 million in Shorts.

The token briefly surged to $1.66 on Sunday before slipping back under $1.50—a move analysts attribute to heavy sell activity originating from South Korea’s dominant exchanges, including Upbit and Bithumb.

Within just 15 hours, roughly 50 million XRP were net sold, creating intense downward pressure ahead of Lunar New Year–related trading slowdowns, a period historically associated with thinner liquidity across Asian markets.

Because XRP commands an outsized share of Korean trading volume, regional flows are now acting as a global price driver, placing leveraged Long traders in a vulnerable position this week.

Dogecoin: Hype Builds—But Exchange Flows Suggest Investors Are Quietly Exiting

Dogecoin has once again captured speculative attention, fueled by renewed bullish chatter and rumors tied to future payment integrations.

That optimism has pushed traders into Long positions—but on-chain data tracked by Nansen tells a more cautious story.

Exchange balances of DOGE spiked sharply beginning February 12, exactly as prices started recovering.

Such inflows often indicate holders are moving tokens to exchanges to sell, not accumulate.

Liquidation thresholds show the stakes:

  • A decline to $0.091 could liquidate nearly $90 million in Longs.

  • A rise to $0.114 would put about $53 million in Shorts at risk.

If exchange inflows persist, analysts say Dogecoin’s rebound could morph into a classic relief rally followed by distribution—a pattern that punishes late bullish entries.

Bittensor (TAO): AI Narrative Fuels Optimism as New Listing Injects Liquidity

Bittensor is emerging as one of the week’s most closely watched tokens following its February 16 listing on Upbit, a move expected to inject fresh liquidity and visibility into the AI-focused blockchain project.

Liquidation data suggests a tightening range:

  • A surge above $283 could force $13 million in Short liquidations.

  • A fall toward $160 risks $11.5 million in Long liquidations.

Market strategist Michaël van de Poppe believes AI-crypto convergence remains one of the strongest structural narratives in digital assets, predicting at least a mean reversion toward the $300 level as interest in decentralized AI accelerates.

With new exchange access and rising thematic demand, TAO may become a battleground between narrative-driven buyers and technical resistance traders.

A Market Caught Between Recovery and Risk

Despite visible altcoin rebounds, broader data compiled by CoinGlass shows liquidation clusters forming across multiple assets—an indication that leverage is rebuilding faster than conviction.

This creates a paradox now defining the crypto landscape:

  • Prices are rising—but confidence isn’t.

  • Traders are adding risk—while liquidity remains uneven.

  • Narratives like AI and payments adoption attract capital—yet macro uncertainty caps follow-through.

In short, the market may not yet be entering a sustained uptrend. Instead, it appears to be navigating a high-volatility transition phase, where sharp squeezes in either direction are increasingly likely.

What to Watch This Week

Market participants are closely monitoring three catalysts that could determine whether February’s rebound holds:

  1. Asian trading flows following the holiday liquidity gap.

  2. Exchange inflow trends, particularly for meme-driven assets like DOGE.

  3. Narrative strength vs. technical resistance in AI-linked tokens such as TAO.

Until sentiment improves broadly, analysts warn that this environment favors short bursts of momentum followed by aggressive liquidations—a setup that rewards patience more than optimism.

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