Bitcoin’s next major move may not be driven by halving cycles or ETF flows—but by artificial intelligence taking jobs faster than markets can absorb.
That’s the stark warning from former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, who says an AI-driven credit crisis could send Bitcoin tumbling below $60,000 as financial stress ripples through households, banks, and risk markets.
Yet in classic Hayes fashion, the same shock he fears in the short term could ultimately ignite the next historic crypto rally.
Bitcoin Is Flashing a Warning Signal, Hayes Says
In a recent essay titled “This Is Fine,” Hayes described Bitcoin as “the global fiat liquidity fire alarm,” arguing that its recent behavior is signaling trouble ahead for the broader economy.
Historically, many investors treated Bitcoin as a high-beta version of tech stocks—moving in sync with risk appetite measured by the Nasdaq-100.
But that relationship is now fracturing.
While the Nasdaq has remained relatively stable, Bitcoin has weakened—a divergence Hayes believes markets are underestimating.
When Bitcoin decouples from equities, he argues, it often reflects tightening credit conditions before they show up elsewhere.
Two Possible Paths for Bitcoin—And One Is Painful
Hayes outlined what he called two scenarios for Bitcoin’s trajectory after its fall from $126,000 highs:
The Correction Is Mostly Done
Bitcoin stabilizes, absorbing earlier losses without dragging the broader market lower.The Real Repricing Hasn’t Started Yet
Stocks and credit markets eventually follow Bitcoin downward, triggering a liquidity scramble where investors sell risk assets indiscriminately.
In the second case, Hayes believes Bitcoin could trade sideways or fall below $60,000 until policymakers intervene.
The Unusual Culprit: AI Job Displacement
Unlike past crises tied to housing bubbles or banking leverage, Hayes points to a new catalyst—rapid automation of white-collar work.
He argues that artificial intelligence can replicate digital knowledge tasks far faster than industrial automation replaced factory labor, potentially hitting consumer finances with unprecedented speed.
Knowledge workers, he says, are especially exposed because:
Their work is digital and easily replicated by AI systems
They often carry large mortgages and consumer credit balances
Sudden income disruption could translate directly into loan stress
Hayes likened the shift to the economic aftershocks of China joining the WTO in 2001, which hollowed out manufacturing employment and contributed to financial instability leading into the 2008 crisis.
A Potential Credit Shock Measured in Hundreds of Billions
Using U.S. labor and credit data, Hayes sketched out a hypothetical scenario:
About 72 million knowledge workers form the backbone of consumer borrowing.
Total U.S. consumer credit sits near $5.1 trillion.
Bank exposure (excluding student loans) is roughly $3.76 trillion.
If just 20% of those workers were displaced by AI, Hayes estimates markets could price in:
$330 billion in consumer credit losses
$227 billion in mortgage-related losses
Such damage, he suggests, could translate into roughly a 13% write-down of U.S. commercial bank equity capital—a scale large enough to force a systemic response.
Gold Is Rising While Bitcoin Slips—And That Matters
Hayes also pointed to relative strength in Gold compared with Bitcoin as evidence investors are already hedging against deflationary stress rather than chasing growth.
A rising gold-to-Bitcoin ratio, in his view, signals markets quietly preparing for a risk-off credit event rather than a traditional inflation scare.
Why Hayes Still Thinks the Endgame Is Bullish
Despite the ominous setup, Hayes ultimately sees the scenario as constructive for Bitcoin—after the pain.
The key turning point, he says, would come when central banks—especially the Federal Reserve—respond to deflationary pressure with renewed liquidity injections.
That response, historically, has meant:
Easier monetary policy
Expansion of fiat credit
Capital flowing back into scarce assets
“Deflation is bad,” Hayes wrote, “but ultimately good for fiat credit-sensitive assets like Bitcoin.”
Once liquidity returns, he expects Bitcoin to rebound decisively and potentially push to new all-time highs.
A Market Caught Between Fear and Future Liquidity
Hayes’ thesis places Bitcoin at the center of a paradox:
Short term: Vulnerable to deleveraging as AI reshapes employment and credit markets.
Long term: Positioned to benefit from the monetary stimulus required to cushion that disruption.
If his prediction proves correct, the next crypto cycle may not begin with hype or innovation—but with an economic shock born from the very technology reshaping the global workforce.